Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Protracted War, the Center of Gravity and "Hearts and MInd" in Afghanistan

There is one thing you must understand when anyone talks about Afghanistan; it is not a real country.  "Country" as a "nation-state" is a modern idea just going back about two hundred years.  The idea of country for the native was a place where "your people" live and speak your language.  Given Afghanistan has 49 languages, it would be difficult for these people to share a common culture.  Afghanistan is the creation of European "statesmen" of the 19th century who drew boundaries on maps to clarify the properties of those European states.  It was only much later that the natives were informed of this action.  In many parts of the world the natives of these regions have no regard for governments outside of their tribal associations.  It is because borders are conceptual that our soldiers are having a hard time.  Despite the fact, we've been there 8+ years, there is ever the fear that the Taliban and Al-Queda, will re-emerge the moment we leave.  

So what are we up against?  Let me lay out what the obvious strategies would be for the Taliban: plan to fight against the invaders for generations if necessary.  Such a practice would be very fitting given the existence of the blood feud and honor killing.  The death of a tribal fighter by NATO, would in fact invite a vendetta killing on foreign forces.   The second part of the of their strategy is keep the insurgency in the news, just as George Washington in keeping his army intact, symbolized resistance to the British.  Their object would be to sustain periodic attacks or bombings targets which symbolically defile Islamist teachings.  Those targets would be anything Western or is tainted by their influences. 

What do we have against them.  We do seek and destroy and try to win "hearts and mind' and build an Army of underpaid but brave fights, serving underneath unskilled and inexperienced commanders.  In our current operation, where the enemy fades, suddenly to pop-up and then fade again.  We have classic guerrilla war. The enemy slinks into villages, their weapons go down to hidden bunkers and we are none the wiser.

If this sounds like another Vietnam, it's because it is.  Oh by the way, just when we leave, they'll roll back in with tanks.

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